In my GM days, we referred to big divisional games like this Sunday’s Vikings-Lions meeting as “swing games.”
1st Place in Division and Conference at Stake as Vikings Host Lions
That’s because a win for the Vikings keeps them undefeated with a two-game lead on the defending NFC North champion Lions. A Vikings loss leaves the teams tied at 5-1, with Detroit actually leading the division and the NFC due to the head-to-head win over Minnesota.
Thus, it’s a two-game swing for both teams. It also matches up two of the three best teams in the NFL (with 5-0 Kansas City, the other team).
This game should be in prime time, not at noon on Sunday, but the league office and the TV networks didn’t believe the Vikings would be contenders. If they had a crystal ball back in May when the schedule was finalized, this game would have that national prime-time audience it deserves.
There are so many fascinating subplots to this game, which will be played before a charged-up, boisterous home crowd for the Vikings.
“There will be a ton of juice in the building,” Vikings Coach Kevin O’Connell said. “We’re playing one of the best teams in the NFL. And with how well everybody’s playing in our division, these division games are going to be really, really important.”
Here are my keys to a Vikings win over the Lions in this swing game:
1. Follow the winning formula that helped deliver the 5-0 record, which is to outrush the opposition and be even or ahead on turnover margin: it won’t be easy by any stretch to accomplish this goal against the talented Lions, especially if Aaron Jones’ injured hamstring keeps him out on Sunday. Ty Chandler and newly acquired Cam Akers would have to run well in Jones’ absence, with the O-line, tight ends, wide receivers, and fullback C.J. Ham opening the holes.
Detroit has perhaps the best offensive line in the league and two excellent backs, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions had 184 rushing yards in their 47-9 beatdown of the Cowboys in Dallas last Sunday.
In what could well be the most critical matchup between the teams, the Lions bring the fourth-ranked rushing attack to battle the Vikings’ second-ranked run defense.
In the two matchups last season (both came in the final three weeks with Nick Mullens playing in place of the injured Kirk Cousins), the Lions outgained the Vikings 143-17 in their 30-24 win in Minnesota, and the Vikings were better in the second game (outrushing the Lions 89-70 in Detroit, but Jared Goff had 320 passing yards and 2 TD tosses in that 30-20 win for the Lions, their third straight victory over the Vikings).
The Vikings need to hold the Lions under 100 yards rushing, which will improve their chances to win even if they get outrushed, as it’s likely to be a game that Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson, and the Vikings’ passing game are more likely to deliver a big performance than the ground game against Detroit’s third-ranked run D.
If Jones (who was limited in Thursday’s practice) and Minnesota’s leading tackler Blake Cashman (turf toe, missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday) can’t play, that makes the Vikings task much more difficult in winning the rushing matchup.
As for turnovers, the Vikings are plus-4 with the second-most takeaways (13, including a league-leading 11 interceptions). The Lions, who have only four giveaways and are plus-6 in their turnover margin, will face a big challenge forcing turnovers. Lions Coach Dan Campbell talked of the Vikings’ ability to force turnovers, saying the defense is leading the way in the great start.
2. Pressure a hot Jared Goff with help from a very loud crowd: the Detroit offense is so prolific that it’s incumbent upon the Vikings defense to slow down a team that scored 40-plus points the past two games and leads the league in scoring (30.2 points per game).
Stopping the run and making the Lions one-dimensional would be a great start, as Goff loves to work the play-action game. He’s coming off two terrific games against weaker defenses (Seattle and Dallas minus Micah Parsons), as he has five TD passes and no interceptions in those games after throwing four picks in the first three games.
The Vikings have 20 sacks and rank second in sacks per game. They must make Goff uncomfortable in the pocket, force some bad throws, and make Goff fumble as he has done when the Lions struggle (he had three lost fumbles in last year’s Thanksgiving loss to the Packers).
It will be fascinating to see two of the top coordinators in the league so far this season—Vikings DC Brian Flores vs. Lions OC Ben Johnson—in their chess match.
3. Cover the Lions’ excellent receivers: it’s a loaded group of pass catchers led by Pro Bowler Amon-Ra St. Brown (whose numbers are down a bit with 31 catches for only 289 yards, a 9.3-yard average, but he does have 3 TDs) and Sam LaPorta (also less productive than last year with 13 catches, 199 yards, 1 TD). Jameson Williams is a dangerous deep threat (22.8-yard average, 3 TDs), and third and fourth wide receivers Tim Patrick and Kalif Raymond have been productive.
If Cashman is out, it hurts the intermediate pass defense on shorter routes, and he can pick up the speedy Gibbs out of the backfield. If Cashman is out, Ivan Pace and Kamu Grugier-Hill, along with Josh Metellus (in his hybrid role as a safety/linebacker), must play well against the pass and the run. The Vikings’ entire secondary will be tested, and Goff will likely go after Byron Murphy, not Stephon Gilmore.
4. Give Darnold time to hit Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jalen Nailor: The Jets pressured Darnold into his first sub-100 passer rating with four sacks, seven QB hits, and one pick, but the Jets had the No. 2 D. The Lions rank 13th and won’t be as good without Hutchinson. DC Aaron Glenn is likely to send more blitzes than usual, which will give the Vikings opportunities to hit big plays if they can pick up the blitzes.
In the two games last season, the Lions had four sacks each time and a combined 26 QB hits on Mullens, but RT Brian O’Neill missed both games, and the now-injured Aidan Hutchinson (broken leg) had a combined two sacks and nine QB hits.
Jefferson has torched the Lions in the last three meetings, with receiving yardage totals of 192, 141, and 223 yards.
The opportunity should be there for a big passing day against Detroit’s 27th-ranked pass defense that is missing their best pass rusher in Hutchinson (7.5 sacks, half of the team’s total), who suffered a broken leg last week. The Detroit corners are beatable, especially if top corner Carlton Davis is out with a quad injury (he missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday).
First-round rookie Terrion Arnold has had penalty issues (five pass interference calls and eight penalties overall over the first four games). It could be a repeat of the Houston game when Jefferson drew several pass interference and holding calls.
Another key will be for the Vikings to avoid the pre-snap penalties that set up long-yardage situations on offense, especially by left guard Blake Brandel, who has played well but has five false starts in the first five games.
Again, this will be a great chess match between O’Connell and Glenn.
5. Reichard stays hot and no special team penalties: the Vikings kicker has been a key to the team’s great start by making all 25 of his kicks (9 for 9 on field goals, including three 50-plus and 16 for 16 on extra points). Ryan Wright has punted well with his inside-the-20 prowess. Lions kicker Jake Bates is also off to an excellent start this season (9 for 9 on field goals with no tries of 50-plus and 16 for 17 on extra points).
Two special team penalties helped the Jets stay in the Week 5 game—Jay Ward’s block in the back on a punt return and Ivan Pace’s roughing the punter. The Jets also had a 31-yard punt return to set up a score.
The Vikings can’t afford those mistakes against a Detroit team that’s much better than the Jets. And the Lions are an excellent kick return team, averaging 28.2 yards per kickoff return, so it’s best for the Vikings if Reichard boots all his kickoffs too deep to return.
Predicting the outcome: I picked the Lions to go to the Super Bowl, but losing their best defensive player and possibly Defensive Player of the Year in Hutchinson may be too much to overcome for a defense that wasn’t great.
If I knew Jones and Cashman would play, I’d pick the Vikings. Also, if T.J. Hockenson returns this week, that could tip it toward the Purple. It just feels like there are too many “ifs” for the Vikings, who also had their leading sacker Pat Jones and excellent interior D-lineman Harrison Phillips miss practice on Wednesday with shoulder injuries (although both were back on a limited basis on Thursday, so it’s likely they’ll play).
The Vikings are third-ranked in fewest points allowed (15.2), and the Lions rank eighth (18.2). But I expect a fairly high-scoring game that will be highly entertaining but will wind up with the Vikings’ first loss. I hope I’m wrong, but I’ll call it 30-27 Detroit.
Around the NFL Predictions in Week 7:
1. The NFC North is off to a historic start, with all four teams having four or more wins for the first time since the league realigned into four-team divisions in 2002. It’s clearly the best division in the league so far in 2024.
The 4-2 Bears are on their bye this week. The 4-2 Packers have a tough matchup with the 5-1 Texans, but I think the Packers will win at Lambeau. Jordan Love will outplay C.J. Stroud in the battle of two fine young quarterbacks.
2. Atlanta and Kirk Cousins have won three straight. They’ll get a home victory over the Seahawks, who have lost three straight, with their shaky defense being the main culprit.
The Jets gave Aaron Rodgers what he wanted by adding Davante Adams to a receiving corps with too many drops, but the Jets’ O-line isn’t good enough, and the Steelers’ defense will lead the way to a Sunday night win in Pittsburgh.
There’s a good Monday night game between the hot Ravens (four straight wins to reach 4-2) and the Buccaneers (also 4-2, with both teams co-leaders in their respective divisions). I like Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and the Ravens to win a tough road game.
Second to Vikings-Lions as the best game this week is the unbeaten Chiefs at the 3-3 49ers in a rematch of last season’s Super Bowl. Both of these teams have battled through key injuries. I hate to pick against Patrick Mahomes, which I mistakenly did in last year’s postseason, but I think the 49ers need the win more as they try to get over .500, and they are at home.
A Vikings win, and a Chiefs loss would make the Purple the sole unbeaten team in the NFL. Hard to imagine that before the season.
